Kangguo Li et al.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-48201-8

Published: May 7, 2024

[Abstract]

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, along with the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), have markedly reshaped infectious disease transmission dynamics. We analysed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in the Chinese mainland, using time series models to forecast transmission trends without PHSMs or pandemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in NID incidence, with respiratory diseases showing the greatest response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases responded more moderately. 8 NIDs were identified as susceptible to PHSMs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease, dengue fever, rubella, scarlet fever, pertussis, mumps, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. The termination of PHSMs did not cause NIDs resurgence immediately, except for pertussis, which experienced its highest peak in December 2023 since January 2008. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different NIDs and the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies, like vaccine development.

[Author Profile]

Dr Tianmu Chen is an associate professor in School of Public Health, Xiamen University. In the past 5 years, his research results have been published in Journal of Infection, International Journal of Infectious Disease, Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease and other journals as the corresponding author.